Q1 2026 Construction Economics Report

Construction's Labor Paradox—The Shrinking Demand Gap

A seeming contradiction is emerging in construction's labor market: the demand-supply gap is narrowing, yet skilled-worker shortages persist. According to the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), new worker demand for 2026 is projected at approximately 350,000—a significant decrease from the 439,000 needed in 2025. Yet despite this moderation, finding experienced workers remains a critical challenge, and the industry risks complacency at a moment when strategic talent investment is more important than ever.

Continue reading this article.

The $1.7 Billion Tariff Hit

The construction industry faces a historic tariff shock. Wall Street Journal analysis projects that recent tariff regimes—20% on Chinese imports and 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods—will add approximately $1.7 billion in costs to U.S. construction this year alone. For residential builders, commercial developers, and industrial owners, this isn't a theoretical concern; it's a tangible, immediate threat to project budgets, timelines, and profitability.

Continue reading this article.

The Green Materials Revolution

The construction-materials market is undergoing a profound transformation. For decades, the industry has operated on a simple formula: cement, steel, timber, aggregates—sourced globally, priced cyclically, and delivered on schedule. But in 2026, a new reality is emerging: carbon regulation is reshaping demand, new low-carbon alternatives are becoming cost-competitive, and forward-thinking developers are capturing significant advantages by acting early.

Continue reading this article.

Southern California's 2026 CRE Boom

Southern California's commercial real estate landscape in 2026 is defined by scarcity, opportunity, and strategic precision. Across key submarkets—from Long Beach's port-driven industrial zones to Irvine's tech-and-life-science corridor—investors and developers are navigating tightening markets, rising rents, and shifting tenant preferences. For those who understand the dynamics, the opportunities are substantial.

Continue reading this article.

Conclusion

The construction industry is at an inflection point. To start 2026, the signal is unmistakable: the macro-economy is strong—GDP is outperforming expectations, consumer and business spending remain resilient. Yet the construction sector is decoupling from that tailwind, pushed down by a convergence of structural headwinds that no amount of economic growth can simply wash away. The labor paradox is real. Demand for projects remains strong while the skilled-trades workforce continues to shrink. Immigration tightening, demographic retirements, and the ongoing perception that construction is "low-skill, low-pay" have created a 92% hiring-crisis rate across the industry. Wage inflation and schedule risk are no longer future concerns—they're operational realities today. Material costs are volatile and rising. The tariff environment has added an estimated $1.7 billion in costs across U.S. construction for 2026 alone. A single mid-sized project can absorb $2-4M in tariff-driven material inflation. Steel, lumber, concrete, and MEP equipment are all subject to price shocks that traditional contingency budgets can no longer absorb. Permitting and regulatory complexity continue to extend timelines. Environmental reviews, zoning changes, and multi-jurisdictional approvals are adding weeks—sometimes months—to pre-construction phases. In a market where financing carry-costs compound daily, these delays directly erode project economics. And yet—opportunity is reemerging in a new form. The firms that execute with discipline in this environment will separate themselves decisively from the pack. Those that don't—those that rely on outdated labor models, reactive material procurement, and linear project delivery—will face cascading cost overruns, schedule delays, and margin compression. Some are already exiting the market. But for owners and developers: This is a moment of clarity. You can now see—clearly—which construction partners have the strategic depth to navigate 2026. It's not the ones with the lowest bid. It's the ones with labor-forecasting expertise, supply-chain discipline, and a track record of delivering on-time and on-budget in tight markets.

Jeff Hall
President & CEO

Online

Get in Touch

Commodity

12 Month % Change

1 Month % Change

Softwood Lumber

-1.4

-4.2

Hardwood Lumber

+6.3

-0.1

General Millworks

+2.2

+0.3

Soft Plywood Products

-5.4

+0.1

Hot Rolled Steel

+2.9

-1.1

Copper Wire & Cable

+9.1

-4.3

Power Wire & Cable

N/A

N/A

Builder's Hardware

+8.8

0.0

Plumbing Fixtures

+7.2

0.0

Furnaces and Heaters

+8.3

-0.9

Sheet Metal Products

+5.4

+0.3

Electrical Lighting Fixtures

N/A

N/A

Nails

+2.9

+0.4

Major Appliances

+1.6

-0.4

Ready-Mix Concrete

+0.4

0.0

Asphalt Roofing & Siding

+3.4

-0.2

Gypsum Products

+0.7

0.0

Insulation

-2.2

-0.2

What does 2025 say about 2026?

The U.S. economy posted a robust 4.4% annualized GDP growth in Q3 2025, marking the fastest quarterly expansion in two years. Consumer spending and AI-related investment in data centers and hardware drove the strength, while exports rose and imports fell—a trade-policy-driven shift. Yet beneath these headline gains, the construction industry faces mounting headwinds that require strategic attention from owners, developers, and capital-project managers.

Continue reading this article.

20-City Average Cost Indexes, Wages, Prices

ENR publishes both a Construction Cost Index and Building Cost index that reports the average national price by surveying 20 major cities across the United States. These figures report the national average change of cost over the last month.

CONCRETE BLOCK

+0.1

READY MIX CONCRETE

+0.2%

ASPHALT PAVING

-0.2%

PORTLAND CEMENT

-0.5%

ALUMINIUM SHEET

+2.8%

REINFORCING BARS

+2.6%

WIDE FLANGE

+1.6%

STAINLESS-STEEL SHEET

-0.3%

CORRUGATED-STEEL PIPE

-1.1%

DUCTILE-IRON PIPE

+0.3%

PVC WATER PIPE

+0.1%

REINFORCED CONCRETE PIPE

-0.2%

GYPSUM WALLBOARD

+0.5%

PARTICLE BOARD

+0.7%

PLYWOOD

+3.2%

LUMBER

+2.4%

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Construction's Labor Paradox—The Shrinking Demand Gap

A seeming contradiction is emerging in construction's labor market: the demand-supply gap is narrowing, yet skilled-worker shortages persist. According to the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), new worker demand for 2026 is projected at approximately 350,000—a significant decrease from the 439,000 needed in 2025. Yet despite this moderation, finding experienced workers remains a critical challenge, and the industry risks complacency at a moment when strategic talent investment is more important than ever.

Continue reading this article.

The $1.7 Billion Tariff Hit

The construction industry faces a historic tariff shock. Wall Street Journal analysis projects that recent tariff regimes—20% on Chinese imports and 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods—will add approximately $1.7 billion in costs to U.S. construction this year alone. For residential builders, commercial developers, and industrial owners, this isn't a theoretical concern; it's a tangible, immediate threat to project budgets, timelines, and profitability.

Continue reading this article.

The Green Materials Revolution

The construction-materials market is undergoing a profound transformation. For decades, the industry has operated on a simple formula: cement, steel, timber, aggregates—sourced globally, priced cyclically, and delivered on schedule. But in 2026, a new reality is emerging: carbon regulation is reshaping demand, new low-carbon alternatives are becoming cost-competitive, and forward-thinking developers are capturing significant advantages by acting early.

Continue reading this article.

Southern California's 2026 CRE Boom

Southern California's commercial real estate landscape in 2026 is defined by scarcity, opportunity, and strategic precision. Across key submarkets—from Long Beach's port-driven industrial zones to Irvine's tech-and-life-science corridor—investors and developers are navigating tightening markets, rising rents, and shifting tenant preferences. For those who understand the dynamics, the opportunities are substantial.

Continue reading this article.

Conclusion

The construction industry is at an inflection point. To start 2026, the signal is unmistakable: the macro-economy is strong—GDP is outperforming expectations, consumer and business spending remain resilient. Yet the construction sector is decoupling from that tailwind, pushed down by a convergence of structural headwinds that no amount of economic growth can simply wash away. The labor paradox is real. Demand for projects remains strong while the skilled-trades workforce continues to shrink. Immigration tightening, demographic retirements, and the ongoing perception that construction is "low-skill, low-pay" have created a 92% hiring-crisis rate across the industry. Wage inflation and schedule risk are no longer future concerns—they're operational realities today. Material costs are volatile and rising. The tariff environment has added an estimated $1.7 billion in costs across U.S. construction for 2026 alone. A single mid-sized project can absorb $2-4M in tariff-driven material inflation. Steel, lumber, concrete, and MEP equipment are all subject to price shocks that traditional contingency budgets can no longer absorb. Permitting and regulatory complexity continue to extend timelines. Environmental reviews, zoning changes, and multi-jurisdictional approvals are adding weeks—sometimes months—to pre-construction phases. In a market where financing carry-costs compound daily, these delays directly erode project economics. And yet—opportunity is reemerging in a new form. The firms that execute with discipline in this environment will separate themselves decisively from the pack. Those that don't—those that rely on outdated labor models, reactive material procurement, and linear project delivery—will face cascading cost overruns, schedule delays, and margin compression. Some are already exiting the market. But for owners and developers: This is a moment of clarity. You can now see—clearly—which construction partners have the strategic depth to navigate 2026. It's not the ones with the lowest bid. It's the ones with labor-forecasting expertise, supply-chain discipline, and a track record of delivering on-time and on-budget in tight markets.

Jeff Hall
President & CEO

Online

Online

Get in Touch

Get in Touch

Commodity

12 Month % Change

1 Month % Change

Softwood Lumber

-1.4

-4.2

Hardwood Lumber

+6.3

-0.1

General Millworks

+2.2

+0.3

Soft Plywood Products

-5.4

+0.1

Hot Rolled Steel

+2.9

-1.1

Copper Wire & Cable

+9.1

-4.3

Power Wire & Cable

N/A

N/A

Builder's Hardware

+8.8

0.0

Plumbing Fixtures

+7.2

0.0

Furnaces and Heaters

+8.3

-0.9

Sheet Metal Products

+5.4

+0.3

Electrical Lighting Fixtures

N/A

N/A

Nails

+2.9

+0.4

Major Appliances

+1.6

-0.4

Ready-Mix Concrete

+0.4

0.0

Asphalt Roofing & Siding

+3.4

-0.2

Gypsum Products

+0.7

0.0

Insulation

-2.2

-0.2

What does 2025 say about 2026?

The U.S. economy posted a robust 4.4% annualized GDP growth in Q3 2025, marking the fastest quarterly expansion in two years. Consumer spending and AI-related investment in data centers and hardware drove the strength, while exports rose and imports fell—a trade-policy-driven shift. Yet beneath these headline gains, the construction industry faces mounting headwinds that require strategic attention from owners, developers, and capital-project managers.

Continue reading this article.

20-City Average Cost Indexes, Wages, Prices

ENR publishes both a Construction Cost Index and Building Cost index that reports the average national price by surveying 20 major cities across the United States. These figures report the national average change of cost over the last month.

CONCRETE BLOCK

+0.1

READY MIX CONCRETE

+0.2%

ASPHALT PAVING

-0.2%

PORTLAND CEMENT

-0.5%

ALUMINIUM SHEET

+2.8%

REINFORCING BARS

+2.6%

WIDE FLANGE

+1.6%

STAINLESS-STEEL SHEET

-0.3%

CORRUGATED-STEEL PIPE

-1.1%

DUCTILE-IRON PIPE

+0.3%

PVC WATER PIPE

+0.1%

REINFORCED CONCRETE PIPE

-0.2%

GYPSUM WALLBOARD

+0.5%

PARTICLE BOARD

+0.7%

PLYWOOD

+3.2%

LUMBER

+2.4%

Sources

Paragon compiles the latest and most accurate information. It’s worth noting, some sources release data more or less frequently.

Q1 2026 Construction Economics Report

Construction's Labor Paradox—The Shrinking Demand Gap

A seeming contradiction is emerging in construction's labor market: the demand-supply gap is narrowing, yet skilled-worker shortages persist. According to the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), new worker demand for 2026 is projected at approximately 350,000—a significant decrease from the 439,000 needed in 2025. Yet despite this moderation, finding experienced workers remains a critical challenge, and the industry risks complacency at a moment when strategic talent investment is more important than ever.

The $1.7 Billion Tariff Hit

The construction industry faces a historic tariff shock. Wall Street Journal analysis projects that recent tariff regimes—20% on Chinese imports and 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods—will add approximately $1.7 billion in costs to U.S. construction this year alone. For residential builders, commercial developers, and industrial owners, this isn't a theoretical concern; it's a tangible, immediate threat to project budgets, timelines, and profitability.

The Green Materials Revolution

The construction-materials market is undergoing a profound transformation. For decades, the industry has operated on a simple formula: cement, steel, timber, aggregates—sourced globally, priced cyclically, and delivered on schedule. But in 2026, a new reality is emerging: carbon regulation is reshaping demand, new low-carbon alternatives are becoming cost-competitive, and forward-thinking developers are capturing significant advantages by acting early.

Southern California's 2026 CRE Boom

Nonresidential construction spending dropped 0.2% in July—marking the third consecutive monthly decline, according to ABC’s latest analysis. Private-sector activity fell by 0.5%, with only power and religious segments showing growth. Material costs are climbing rapidly due to new tariffs, and nearly 1 in 4 contractors reported project delays or cancellations tied to those cost spikes. With labor shortages reemerging and economic uncertainty high, industry leaders are bracing for a challenging second half of 2025.

Sources

Paragon compiles the latest and most accurate information. It’s worth noting, some sources release data more or less frequently.

Commodity

12 Month % Change

1 Month % Change

Softwood Lumber

-1.4

-4.2

Hardwood Lumber

+6.3

-0.1

General Millworks

+2.2

+0.3

Soft Plywood Products

-5.4

+0.1

Hot Rolled Steel

+2.9

-1.1

Copper Wire & Cable

+9.1

-4.3

Power Wire & Cable

N/A

N/A

Builder's Hardware

+8.8

0.0

Plumbing Fixtures

+7.2

0.0

Furnaces and Heaters

+8.3

-0.9

Sheet Metal Products

+5.4

+0.3

Electrical Lighting Fixtures

N/A

N/A

Nails

+2.9

+0.4

Major Appliances

+1.6

-0.4

Ready-Mix Concrete

+0.4

0.0

Asphalt Roofing & Siding

+3.4

-0.2

Gypsum Products

+0.7

0.0

Insulation

-2.2

-0.2

What does 2025 say about 2026?

The U.S. economy posted a robust 4.4% annualized GDP growth in Q3 2025, marking the fastest quarterly expansion in two years. Consumer spending and AI-related investment in data centers and hardware drove the strength, while exports rose and imports fell—a trade-policy-driven shift. Yet beneath these headline gains, the construction industry faces mounting headwinds that require strategic attention from owners, developers, and capital-project managers.

Continue reading.

20-City Average Cost Indexes, Wages, Prices

ENR publishes both a Construction Cost Index and Building Cost index that reports the average national price by surveying 20 major cities across the United States. These figures report the national average change of cost over the last month.

CONCRETE BLOCK

+0.1

READY MIX CONCRETE

+0.2%

ASPHALT PAVING

-0.2%

PORTLAND CEMENT

-0.5%

ALUMINIUM SHEET

+2.8%

REINFORCING BARS

+2.6%

WIDE FLANGE

+1.6%

STAINLESS-STEEL SHEET

-0.3%

CORRUGATED STEEL PIPE

-1.1%

DUCTILE-IRON PIPE

+0.3%

PVC WATER PIPE

+0.1%

REINFORCED CONCRETE PIPE

-0.2%

GYPSUM WALLBOARD

+0.5%

PARTICLE BOARD

+0.7%

PLYWOOD

+3.2%

LUMBER

+2.4%

Q1 2026 Construction Economics Report

Conclusion

The construction industry is at an inflection point. To start 2026, the signal is unmistakable: the macro-economy is strong—GDP is outperforming expectations, consumer and business spending remain resilient. Yet the construction sector is decoupling from that tailwind, pushed down by a convergence of structural headwinds that no amount of economic growth can simply wash away. The labor paradox is real. Demand for projects remains strong while the skilled-trades workforce continues to shrink. Immigration tightening, demographic retirements, and the ongoing perception that construction is "low-skill, low-pay" have created a 92% hiring-crisis rate across the industry. Wage inflation and schedule risk are no longer future concerns—they're operational realities today. Material costs are volatile and rising. The tariff environment has added an estimated $1.7 billion in costs across U.S. construction for 2026 alone. A single mid-sized project can absorb $2-4M in tariff-driven material inflation. Steel, lumber, concrete, and MEP equipment are all subject to price shocks that traditional contingency budgets can no longer absorb. Permitting and regulatory complexity continue to extend timelines. Environmental reviews, zoning changes, and multi-jurisdictional approvals are adding weeks—sometimes months—to pre-construction phases. In a market where financing carry-costs compound daily, these delays directly erode project economics. And yet—opportunity is reemerging in a new form. The firms that execute with discipline in this environment will separate themselves decisively from the pack. Those that don't—those that rely on outdated labor models, reactive material procurement, and linear project delivery—will face cascading cost overruns, schedule delays, and margin compression. Some are already exiting the market. But for owners and developers: This is a moment of clarity. You can now see—clearly—which construction partners have the strategic depth to navigate 2026. It's not the ones with the lowest bid. It's the ones with labor-forecasting expertise, supply-chain discipline, and a track record of delivering on-time and on-budget in tight markets.

Jeff Hall
President & CEO
Jeff Hall
President & CEO

Online

Get in Touch